Merson's predictions: Liverpool to beat Man Utd on Super Sunday

Sky Sports' Paul Merson gives his predictions ahead of an important weekend in the Premier League.

Ahead of the upcoming break for international football, Merse is back to cast his expert eye over the Premier League fixtures. Here's how the 'Magic Man' sees the 10 games going.

Liverpool v Manchester United, Sky Sports 1, Sunday 

Merson feels Liverpool's attacking players will pose too much of a threat to United at Anfield in the Super Sunday clash

Liverpool definitely start as favourites to win this game, although I do not think that they can afford to lose as then they will fall five points behind United, and that will be too many to catch up with so few games left to play this season.

United’s win over Spurs on Sunday was the best they have played so far this campaign and while people have said how poor Spurs were, I have seen them play that badly before this season and still win games, such as at Aston Villa.

If United can get into the final third often enough and get the ball to Ashley Young, then Marouane Fellaini becomes a big threat. However, if they have to start their attacks in their own half and play it forward from there to the Belgian, then I think Liverpool will be able to cope with that OK.

And while United were very good in that match against Tottenham last weekend, I still feel Liverpool will win this game as they will have too much pace and movement up front for the visitors, and I do not see how their back four will be able to cope with the home team’s attacking players.

PAUL PREDICTS: 3-1 

 

Liverpool vs Man Utd

March 22, 2015

Hull City v Chelsea, Sky Sports 1, Sunday 4pm

Merse feels Chelsea have now all but wrapped up this season's title

I would be shocked if Chelsea threw the title away from here, there is no question that it is Chelsea’s to lose now and they will be keen to put the championship to bed as soon as possible, then let the others fight it out for the remaining three Champions League spots.

And I think they will win this game as they are a cut above Hull, who will be out of their depth here despite their recent upturn in form, so I am going for an easy 2-0 win to Chelsea.

PAUL PREDICTS: 0-2 

 

Hull City vs Chelsea

March 22, 2015

West Ham United v Sunderland, Sky Sports 1, Saturday 

Dick Advocaat's appointment at the Stadium of Light has left Paul Merson puzzled

I do not know where Dick Advocaat’s appointment has come from really – if you had given me 100 guesses, I still would not have got it and I can see this being a Fulham situation all over again like with Felix Magath.

I know people have said that Advocaat has managed in Scotland before, but that is not the Premier League at all and I am really shocked by the news. I would have liked to see Kevin Ball get the job until the end of the season had they not gone first to get Sam Allardyce from West Ham, who is the manager they should have tried for. 

I do not know why they did not offer Big Sam a three or four-year deal and seen what he said, as Allardyce would have definitely kept them up. And even if he did not, he would have brought them straight back up the next season, so it would have been worth the investment either way.

But I cannot see anything other than an easy 3-0 win for West Ham.

 

West Ham vs S'land

March 21, 2015

PAUL PREDICTS: 3-0 

Manchester City v West Bromwich Albion, Saturday

City have to beat West Brom at Eastlands on Saturday if they want to have any hope of retaining their title, says the Magic Man

Tony Pulis will ensure that West Brom are up for this game, even if they do not really have anything to play for, while Man City go into it on the back of a terrible result at Burnley last time out and I think they have to win this match.

If City don't, they will definitely struggle to finish in the top two and then all of a sudden – if Liverpool also win against Manchester United on Sunday – the Champions League positions will all start to bunch up.

However, I still expect City to win this one 2-0.

PAUL PREDICTS: 2-0 

Aston Villa v Swansea City, Saturday 

Merson thinks Villa will not find it easy against Swansea at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon

Villa will have looked at Burnley’s match with Manchester City and thought they would have been more than just three points from safety after their own great win at Sunderland last week, and six points clear is a lot more of a cushion than three.

I do worry a bit for Villa in this fixture as their fans will, for the first time this season, be turning up at Villa Park expecting their team to get a result and Swansea is a hard fixture, while Garry Monk will want his side to achieve a record points total in the Premier League.

And that is why I am going for a 1-1 draw, as I see this being a tough contest for Villa.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-1 

Newcastle United v Arsenal, Saturday 

Arsenal will cruise to victory at Newcastle on Saturday according to Merse

This is Arsenal all over at the moment, they will win their last nine league games of the season and then there will be huge optimism around the club that they can go and win next season’s Premier League.

Yes they have been in impressive form of late, but they still lost that one crucial game at home to what was a poor Monaco side in the Champions League.

Meanwhile, Newcastle will be without their captain Fabricio Coloccini through suspension, and I think he will be a huge miss and even though they will be playing in front of 50,000 fans at St James’, Arsenal have a great record there and I expect an easy win for Arsene Wenger’s side.

PAUL PREDICTS: 0-3 

Southampton v Burnley, Saturday 

The Magic Man feels Southampton should just be too strong for struggling Burnley this weekend

I have watched Burnley play away from home a few times this season and wherever they go, Sean Dyche’s men have a go. They drew at both Chelsea and Manchester City, while they should have also won at Manchester United, when they were much better than them that night at Old Trafford.

Southampton also need to win this match and I was hugely impressed with how they played in the second half of the opening 45 minutes at Chelsea last Sunday, when I thought they were superb, although after half-time the home side dominated and should have won easily.

But if Southampton win this game and there is a draw between Liverpool and United on Sunday, then Ronald Koeman’s team are right back in the race for the top four. And despite them having dropped off the pace this year, I still see them just winning this one after the confidence they will have picked up from that draw at Chelsea last weekend.

PAUL PREDICTS: 2-1 

Stoke City v Crystal Palace, Saturday 

Stoke will get the better of Palace on Saturday, according to Merson

I like Stoke and I very rarely go against them when they are at home, while I have also been impressed with Palace since Alan Pardew took over. They have great pace both on the wings and up front, while they are a decent team away from home, and apart from the result at Southampton last time out, I think they have won four or five on the road this season.

However, Stoke are a hard team at home, so I am going for a 2-1 win to them.

PAUL PREDICTS: 2-1 

Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City, Saturday 

Merse predicts a shock win for Leicester at Spurs on Saturday afternoon, like they managed in the FA Cup

People are going to think that it’s my Arsenal connections as I am going to go for a Leicester win here. Spurs were poor last week at United and Harry Kane has just been called up by England. And that may mean him subconsciously not wanting to get injured and his head could be on the international games next week, while Spurs have been over-reliant on his and Christian Eriksen’s goals so far this season.

Leicester have to win this game and while they were also poor last week at home to Hull, I think Tottenham will come on to them and the visitors’ pace in attack with Andrej Kramaric – who I like a lot – and Jeffrey Schlupp could hurt them.

And they also won at White Hart Lane in the FA Cup, so that is why I am going for them this week.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-2 

Queens Park Rangers v Everton, Sunday

QPR and Everton will share the spoils at Loftus Road on Sunday afternoon, says the Magic Man

QPR have to win this game if they want to get out of trouble, but despite Everton having just come back from a long trip to Dynamo Kiev on Thursday, I still think that they will be a dangerous team to face now at the end of the season as – let’s face it – they have got good players haven’t they? And they shouldn't be where they are, should they?

Everton still need to get a result themselves on Sunday and regardless of their match in Kiev, they must come away from Loftus Road without getting beaten as if they do lose, then they are right back in trouble.

If Everton manage to avoid defeat, then that should be enough to see them stay up, which is why I think they will come away with a 1-1 draw.

PAUL PREDICTS: 1-1 

Lionel Messi insists Barcelona are wary of Real Madrid biting back ahead of El Clasico

Lionel Messi insists Barcelona are staying grounded despite their fine form

Lionel Messi insists Barcelona are staying cautious ahead of the Clasico against Real Madrid on Sunday.

Barcelona progressed to the quarter-final of the Champions League with a 3-1 aggregate win over Manchester City on Wednesday, and could go four points clear of Real Madrid with a Clasico win on Sunday.

Cristiano Ronaldo has struggled with performances since Christmas

But Messi, who has scored 20 goals in 18 games since the turn of the year, says the club are not getting carried away.

"We are playing well but we cannot get carried away because there is a long way to go," Messi said.

"We have some big games... first against Madrid and then there are the quarter-finals (of the Champions League) where we will face another tough team."

 

Barcelona vs R Madrid

March 22, 2015

Real Madrid looked in fine form before the Spanish winter break, but have struggled for consistent form since.
Nevertheless, Messi admits they are facing a wounded animal at the Nou Camp on Sunday evening.

"I have a lot of respect for Madrid," Messi added. "When Madrid are in this situation it is when they are most dangerous."

"They have great players. We will go out to play our football and look to win but at the same time we need to be wary of them as much as ever." 

Gary Neville: Manchester United win more damaging to Liverpool

Sky Sports' Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville pick their starting XI's for the Super Sunday clash between Liverpool and Manchester United.

Gary Neville says Liverpool are the favourites against Manchester United, but a win for the visitors would be a more defining result.

With just two points between them, the two rivals face off at Anfield on Super Sunday, live on Sky Sports 1 from 1pm, eager to get a result to keep their top-four push alive.

Sky Sports pundit Neville played for Manchester United against Liverpool on several occasions during his career, and he knows there will be key match-ups all over the pitch in Sunday’s encounter.

The former full-back spoke to Sky Sports News HQ about this historic fixture… 

Gives us a sense of what these games are like…

Neville in action against Liverpool in 1997

It’s always a great fixture. For United, away at Anfield is always special. You don’t get any time on the ball, you definitely feel a different level of anxiety going into the game about what could go well and what could not go well. It’s fast and it’s furious and in a game like Sunday where there’s a lot on it, it makes it even better.

Is this a defining game for both teams?

Sunday’s game now, with the way that it’s set up, I wouldn’t say is a game that defines who is going to finish in the top four, but it will certainly give the team who comes out better from the game a massive boost in confidence.

 

Liverpool vs Man Utd

March 22, 2015

We always want to say that whoever goes on to win this will do this and that but it’s too far out. Liverpool have still got to play Chelsea and Arsenal, United have got to play City and Chelsea. So you could win the game on Sunday and still be in a position where if you lose all the other games you’re still in trouble.

So while I think it’s a big game, United winning is bigger because a five-point lead is a big gap. If Liverpool win it puts them in a great frame of mind but I still think there’s too long to go. A draw sets it up for the rest of the season. I think United would be content with a draw but I don’t think a draw is the worst result for Liverpool either.

Who goes into this game as the favourite?

Sky Sports' Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville pick their starting XI's for the Super Sunday clash between Liverpool and Manchester United.

You’d have to make Liverpool the favourites. I know United played well last week but at Anfield and with their fantastic run of form, you’d have to make them favourites. United will have to go there on Sunday and withstand immense pressure, particularly early on in the game. Liverpool have got fantastic energy in that front six and I think are better at United than that. But United have got matchwinners in their team and I think the game is set up well.

Was the 3-0 win over Tottenham a turning point for United?

Wayne Rooney scored in the win over Spurs

You’d hope so if you were a United fan but I think that was a complete bolt out of the blue. The speed of the game was higher than it’s been all season, the directness and the intent to play forward – everything just seemed to be up a gear. It hadn’t been like that in the past few weeks so for it to come like that in a moment when they’d just lost to Arsenal was a massive boost for everyone at United.

But I don’t think you can play as you did at home to Tottenham and then go to Anfield and play the same way. That would be a big mistake, in my opinion. In a perfect world you’d love to go to Anfield, start positively and go a goal up, but how many times has that happened? How many times have United done it? They are few and far between. It would be naive.

United will need to change the way they play. I always felt it was the tightest ground along with The Dell to play at. The crowd were on top of you, the players you were playing against felt on top of you, so you had to be quick in your play and your touch had to be good. You had to know where your next pass was and if you didn’t have that sorted you were going to be in trouble.

How do you think Louis van Gaal and Brendan Rodgers are handling the pressure?

Rodgers and Van Gaal both deserve credit for their sides' recent form, says Neville

I don’t think either manager is panicking. I think they’re both confident in the ability of their team and if they’re not then they’re hiding it well in the interviews they do. You never get the feeling that Louis van Gaal blinks. Brendan Rodgers has backed his team all the way through the season, even when the new signings weren’t fitting in and he’s done brilliantly to get them back in this race because I wondered whether they could play a part in it as they looked defensively weak. I’ve been impressed by Liverpool over these past few weeks and credit must go to Rodgers for what they’ve done.

I think Van Gaal deserves credit too because United haven’t been at their best. At times, they’ve been criticised for their style of play and the speed of their style of play but the fact they’ve recorded over 20 matches and have only lost a few of them is unbelievable.

Where are the key battles on Sunday?

Marouane Fellaini could be key in the midfield battle

The most fascinating thing for me will be the first 15 or 20 minutes when Van Gaal asks the centre-backs to split and for Michael Carrick to go and get the ball. Liverpool will be pressing high and the crowd will be up. Can United get out, will they get dispossessed? I always felt the first 20 minutes was defining at Anfield. You have to get through it.

Jordan Henderson and Joe Allen will be interesting in midfield. How will they play against Ander Herrera, Michael Carrick and Marouane Fellaini if they play? How will United cut off those little pockets for the passes into Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho? There are so many things happening during this match for Liverpool and United to contend with.

The biggest thing will be that United will get put under immense pressure in the first 20 minutes and they like to play with a controlled tempo out from the back with the defence splitting. I’m not quite convinced by that as a strategy for winning at Anfield because it’s never worked for United. We couldn’t do it when we were at the top of the league so to think that we’re going to do it on Sunday would be a bit of a mistake.

Jamie Carragher says he wouldn't include Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard in the starting line-up against Manchester United.

Tottenham youngster Harry Kane earns first England call-up

Harry Kane has scored more goals (26) than any other English striker this season

Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been named in the England squad for the first time for this month's European Qualifier against Lithuania and friendly with Italy.

The 21-year-old, who has scored more goals than any other English striker this season with 26 in all competitions, is the only uncapped player called up by manager Roy Hodgson in a 24-man group.

England manager Roy Hodgson says Harry Kane is ready to play for his country after a very good season for Tottenham.

Hodgson praised Kane for having scored 16 Premier League goals during his first full  season in Tottenham's first-team, but insisted he is not necessarily assured of a first start for this country.

“I think the whole country has been excited by his rise. He’s been fantastic since he broke into the Spurs team and it would be more of a surprise if he’d not been selected," Hodgson told Sky Sports News HQ.

“He deserves his chance and I’m delighted to welcome him to the fold and help establish him. Like others he’s young and others have gone on to establish themselves, so hopefully he will too.

With England not having any teams left in the Champions League, Roy Hodgson says expectations at Premier League clubs might be too high.

“Gary Neville was recently on a training course with Mauricio Pochettino’s assistant and spoke to him, and I’ve worked with Harry myself when I took the U21s a year or so ago. We know him and what he can do on the field is clear for all to see.

“When you’re in the squad you are good enough to play and you understand the coach thinks you’re good enough too, but there’s competition. We’ve done well since the World Cup, with six straight wins, and those players have done well, so it’s not a case of him saying ‘I’m here so step aside’. They won’t want to.”

"Huge honour to be called up to the England squad! Very proud day for me and my family! Thank you all for the kind messages! #England"

@hkane28 - Harry Kane

Kane's fellow striker Daniel Sturridge also returns to the squad having missed the previous five internationals through injury, and is one of four Liverpool players along with Raheem Sterling, Adam Lallana and Jordan Henderson.

Hodgson said: "His form is getting better and better. It takes a while after an absence to get your faculties back but I watched the game on Monday night against Swansea and there were very good signs his sharpness is coming back."

Michael Carrick has also been picked despite not having played for England since October 2013 and there are also chances for youngsters Fabian Delph, Nathaniel Clyne and Andros Townsend.

Roy Hodgson says Joe Hart produced an outstanding display in Manchester City’s defeat to Barcelona.

Hodgson also explained why he had only selected two goalkeepers in the squad, with Stoke's Jack Butland put on standby.

"We regard Jack Butland as the goalkeeper in that position but the U21s have a game on Friday so we would prefer him, if nothing happens to the other two, to stay and play in that game. 

"But he will be our third goalkeeper and come with us if something happens to them in training or in the game on Friday evening."

Full squad: Fraser Forster, Joe Hart; Leighton Baines, Gary Cahill, Nathaniel Clyne, Kieran Gibbs, Phil Jagielka, Phil Jones, Luke Shaw, Chris Smalling, Kyle Walker; Ross Barkley, Michael Carrick, Fabian Delph, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Theo Walcott; Harry Kane, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck

Premier League to lose Champions League spot? Coefficients explained...

James Milner reacts as City were dumped out of the Champions League by Barcelona

Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea all dropped out of the Champions League at the last 16 stage, leaving Everton to battle it out in Europe alone.

But will Premier League side's failures have an impact on the fourth Champions League spot? Here, we explain the murky world of coefficients...

Will the Premier League always get four Champions League places?

No. That coveted fourth place in the Premier League – occupied by Arsenal for three of the last four years – has been a privilege since the 2001/02 season.

For fairness, UEFA hand out Champions League places depending on how a particular country has performed in the last five years. At its height, the Premier League had eight Champions League finalists in eight seasons between 2005 and 2012, winning three. But events of the last two-and-a-half years have threatened to ruin all that hard work…

Why are people now saying the Premier League could soon lose a Champions League spot?

Chelsea were knocked out of the Champions League by PSG last Wednesday

English clubs' underwhelming record in Europe this season was highlighted yet again this week when Arsenal and Manchester City were both knocked out of the Champions League at the last 16 stage, along with Chelsea the week before.

Liverpool went out at the group stage and were then knocked out of the Europa League round of 32 along with Tottenham, Hull failed to reach the group stages of the Europa League, and Everton are the only side left in Europe’s secondary competition.

Which countries get which places?

Currently, the top three ranked countries – Spain, England and Germany - are given four Champions League places, while the three countries below - currently Italy, Portugal and France - are given three.

The countries are ranked on a coefficient score, based on 'points' gained from performance in the Champions League and Europa League.

How is this coefficient score calculated?

Santi Cazorla of Arsenal looks dejected as Monaco players celebrate progressing

The coefficient is calculated by working out an average score for the country, which is gained by dividing the number of 'points' obtained by the total number of clubs representing a country (for example, England have seven clubs this season).  

That resulting number is then added to the results of the previous four seasons to calculate the coefficient. 

How do you gain 'points'?

Still with us? Good. Each team gets two points for a win and one point for a draw, though points are halved for matches in the qualifying and play-off rounds. 

Clubs that reach the last 16, quarter-final, semi-final or final of the Champions League, or the quarter-final, semi-final or final of the Europa League, are awarded an extra point for each round. 

In addition, four points are awarded for participation in the group stage of the Champions League and four points for qualifying for the last 16.

So how many points have we got this season?

Manchester United reached the 2011 Champions League final, losing out to Barcelona

Arsenal have gained 21.5 points, Chelsea 21, Man City 15, Everton 14, Liverpool 10, Tottenham 11 and Hull 2.5, meaning up to now England have scored 95 points. Dividing that by seven gets you 13.571, England’s current coefficient score for the season.

How does this compare to other countries this season?

England’s score of 13.571 is currently fourth-best; Spain have 15.785, Germany 14.428 and Italy 15.

So where are England in the overall rankings when taking into account the past five seasons (including 2014/15)?

England are currently second in the overall coefficient ranking – the one that counts - with 80.391 points over the past five seasons. That's 18.357 (2010/11) + 15.250 (2011/12) + 16.428 (2012/13) + 16.785 (2013/14) + this year's 13.571.

Spain are top with 95.57, while Germany are just behind England with 77.986.

Could anybody overtake England this year?

It is virtually impossible for England’s closest challengers, Italy, to overtake this year. They are currently 14 points behind England in the overall standings. To put that into context, in the whole of the 2013/14 season, Italy gained 14.166 points, while England gained 16.785.

However, with the 2010/11 season dropping off the coefficient list next season, the gap will narrow considerably. With Manchester United reaching the final in 2011, England gained 18.357 points to Italy’s 11.571, meaning Italy will gain just under seven points.

The most points scored in a single season in the past five years was Spain's 23 in 2013/14 when both Atletico Madrid  and Real Madrid reached the Champions League final, as well as Sevilla beating Benfica in the Europa League final.

So Italy are the biggest threat to the Premier League's fourth spot?

Everton are now the Premier League's only hope in Europe

Yes – and they still have six teams playing this season. Juventus are into the Champions League quarter-finals, while Torino, Roma, Fiorentina, Napoli and Inter Milan remain in the Europa League.

However, it would take a few years of rapid decline for Italy to overtake England in the coefficients.

What can Everton do to help the situation?

A Champions League or Europa League win usually gains a country around five points (depending on qualifying-round participation) towards that season’s overall coefficient, so an Everton victory come May would be extremely useful for England.

It’s not all about the Champions League teams being eliminated – Europa League is just as important for the coefficient.

Worst-case scenario: what’s the earliest the Premier League could realistically lose its fourth Champions League place?

To wildly predict the future, England’s fourth place will not be affected for the 2015/16 season, should be protected for the 2016/17 season, but may come under threat for the 2017/18 season - but only if Italian clubs consistently out-perform English clubs across both European competitions for the rest of this season and next season.